THE GOOD news for fans in Scotland is that they will be able to attend the Heineken Cup final in person come May 23 next year since it takes place at Murrayfield. The not so good news is that, barring a miracle, no Scottish team will come even remotely close to making an appearance on the big day unless they block-book a section of the West Stand.

The history of the European Cup is one of almost uninterrupted success across Europe's rugby heartland with a few obvious hiccups. The English clubs boycotted the 1998/99 competition for reasons that have long since been forgotten, they and the French threatened to do the same just last year and Scotland has yet to lavish much love on the competition.

Perhaps that is not surprising. The bare statistics make uncomfortable reading for those from north of the Border. Since its inception in 1996 no Scottish side has ever appeared in the final and only once, Edinburgh back in 2004, has a pro team managed to squeeze through to the last eight. Even then it was only in last place. The one time Glasgow came close to matching that achievement was when they met Leicester Tigers in a play-off for a quarter-final place but went down 90-19 to one of Europe's great teams back in 1997/98.

Everywhere clubs are moving to bigger grounds to accommodate the large and growing audience for European rugby; everywhere but Scotland. Toulouse and Leicester shuffle across town to fill their local football stadiums, Saracens and Wasps both move 150-odd miles up the motorway to Coventry's Ricoh Arena, while Biarritz and Bourgoin went one better last year and played in another country altogether, Spain and Switzerland respectively.

Meanwhile Glasgow posted the record low for a crowd last season, oh, and the second lowest too. Glasgow's chief executive Ian Riddoch boasts a background in marketing which is a relief because otherwise Firhill might have been completely empty with the exception of some tumbleweed and, of course, those half-time dancers. From greater Glasgow, an urban conurbation that is home to more than a million people, just 2,194 paying punters turned up to watch Glasgow go toe-to-toe with Biarritz, one of the biggest names in European rugby, and just 1,722 watched their team beat Viadana. That is fewer than watched the return fixture in Italy, and with just 17,000 inhabitants Viadana is tiny; it was closed for lunch when I visited. Edinburgh did better but attracting 3,400 fans for the visit of Toulouse is nothing to boast about.

If that isn't depressing enough the whole question of money should be enough to persuade you to jump. Rugby takes its lead from soccer and just as the round ball game is increasingly dominated by filthy lucre so too rugby uneasily straddles the fence that separates sport and business, a foot in each camp. But for the £225,000 participation fee why else would the Welsh and English clubs bother with the ludicrous EDF Cup?

In the last eight years only four teams have won the Heineken Cup, a select bunch of top-class clubs who know the ropes inside out; Leicester Tigers, London Wasps, Munster and Toulouse have all triumphed twice since 2001. Three of those teams are staggeringly well endowed, Toulouse's annual playing budget is probably four times that of Edinburgh's but the French giant's spending power is at least twice that of Wasps, one of the poorer relations in the Guinness Premiership.

It seems that clubs need a certain amount of the folding stuff after which coaching, players, tactics, team spirit and a whole host of other things still have their part to play. You can't buy a winning team but you still need a healthy budget to buy the sort of depth of squad that is needed to win in Europe; a budget bigger than either Scottish team can boast.

Most of the winning clubs have a core of players who have grown up together with just a few foreign imports plugging the bigger and most obvious gaps. Munster had a hole where their midfield should have been so they imported Rua Tipoki and Life Mafi who have had the impact of a sledgehammer. With Doug Howlett in the back three Munster can move the ball about with the best of them but they understand that the Heineken Cup is not the place for frippery or flippancy.

Just as the World Cup gets less entertaining the further the competition progresses, so too the biggest prize in Europe is rarely won by Barbarian-style rugby. Instead it is the application of an unholy alliance of pragmatism, brute strength, bravery and, sad to say, no little cynicism that usually prevails. As teams progress they play less rugby, increasingly nervous of making that one vital mistake upon which the cup can turn. Peter Stringer won it for Munster in 2006 when Biarritz winger Sireli Bobo abandoned his blindside post.

Glasgow have the kind of style that suits the latter stages of the Heineken, a big pack and a kicking fly-half, but they lack the overall quality required to get there. They have the better draw compared to Edinburgh but they will still probably need a win at Bath or a home victory over Toulouse (or both) and you wouldn't bet the bank on either happening.

Edinburgh at least share a group with two teams that want to play rugby in Wasps and Leinster, which should suit Andy Robinson's men. But the capital side has already conceded 52 points to the Dubliners this year and one win in five Magners League outings does not promise an imminent breakthrough in Europe. Unless they beat Leinster next Saturday, Edinburgh's cup run might be all but over after a mere 80 minutes of rugby.

The Heineken Cup is an unforgiving competition, especially for the Scots.

HEINEKEN CUP FACTS

PREVIOUS WINNERS

1996: Toulouse (beat Cardiff)
1997: Brive (beat Leicester)
1998: Bath (beat Brive)
1999: Ulster (beat Colomiers)
2000: Northampton (beat Munster)
2001: Leicester (beat Stade Francais)
2002: Leicester (beat Munster)
2003: Toulouse (beat Perpignan)
2004: Wasps (beat Toulouse)
2005: Toulouse (beat Stade Francais)
2006: Munster (beat Biarritz)
2007: Wasps (beat Leicester)
2008: Munster (beat Toulouse)

SCOTS IN EXILE

France: Scott Murray (Montauban); Simon Taylor (Stade de France); Nathan Hines and Chris Cusiter (Perpignan).

England: Alasdair Dickinson, Alasdair Strokosch, Rory Lawson, Scott Lawson and David Young (all Gloucester); Jason White and Rory Lamont (both Sale Sharks); Robbie Kydd and Jack Cuthbert (both Bath).

Wales: Nikki Walker (Ospreys); Andy Hall and Lee Harrison (both Dragons); Scott MacLeod (Scarlets).

ODDS TO WIN 2009 CUP

7/2 – Toulouse; 6/1 – Stade Francais; 7/1 – Munster; 10/1 – Leinster; 11/1 – Wasps; 12/1 – Clermont Auvergne, Gloucester, Leicester, Ospreys; 14/1 – Bath; 16/1 – Biarritz; 20/1 – Perpignan; 25/1 – Sale Sharks; 40/1 – Cardiff Blues, Harlequins; 50/1 – Scarlets; 100/1 – Castres, Edinburgh; 150/1 – Glasgow, Ulster; 250/1 – Newport Gwent Dragons; 300/1 – Montauban; 1,000/1 – Treviso, Calvisano.

GUIDE TO THE GROUPS

Pool 1

Clermont Auvergne
Montauban
Munster
Sale Sharks

It will be almost impossible to navigate a path out of this pool which is more Corryvreckan whirlpool than the kiddies' paddling variety. In a recent poll most respondents selected this as the toughest group in this year's Heineken Cup and you can see why. The big money spenders from Clermont will be looking for some return on their investment while Munster are unbeaten, provided they got the better of Glasgow last night, and Sale have won four of their five starts in the Guinness. Even Scott Murray's Montauban aren't doing badly at all, and have the French Top 14's top try scorer in Fijian winger Vilimoni Delasau.

Prediction

Winners: Munster
Runners-up: Sale Sharks

Pool 2

Castres
Edinburgh
Leinster
Wasps

This is another pool that is no one's idea of a walk in the park. Leinster are probably the best team never to have won the European Cup (with the possible exception of Stade Francais ). They have already put down a marker with a 52-point drubbing of Edinburgh as the new forwards' coach Johnno Gibbes bullies his pack into producing their best. Castres are at the ugly end of the domestic league and so are Wasps but at least the Londoners have a pedigree in this competition. They lost their first three league matches but still stole the points at Welford Road and the two-time winners will have their Heineken Cup heads on by the time this contest kicks off.

Prediction

Winners: Leinster
Runners-up: Wasps

Pool 3

Treviso
Leicester Tigers
Ospreys
Perpignan

This is the second toughest pool in the competition. Treviso will offer stern resistance at home but are unlikely to pick up points on the road. Perpignan will be all but unbeatable at home but they too need to improve on their travels. A certain Dan Carter may make a difference if his club are still in the mix come December when he joins. The Ospreys were the big losers last year when they beat Saracens 30-3 in the EDF Cup and thought that all they had to do was turn up for the same result in the quarter-finals of the Heineken. Doh! That mistake cost coach Lyn Jones his job. Meanwhile Leicester are Leicester, the Munster of the Midlands, only not nearly so good as the Irishmen in recent years.

Prediction

Winners: Ospreys
Runners-up: Tigers

Pool 4

Harlequins
Scarlets
Stade Francais
Ulster

Things get a little easier here because both the Scarlets and Ulster, the latter under the stewardship of Matt Williams, are struggling like flies in honey. Harlequins could be the surprise package because they are scoring tries for fun right now. The Londoners have looked good this season but they will still need fly-half Nick Evans back from injury if they are to succeed at this exalted level. Meanwhile coach Ewan McKenzie is doing well with Stade, perhaps Frank Hadden will follow his example and play Simon Taylor in the second row where he has helped his club to the top of the Top 14. The French side should win this group at a canter.

Prediction

Winners: Stade Francais
Runners-up: Harlequins

Pool 5

Bath
Glasgow
Dragons
Toulouse

Bath lost some big names over the summer, skipper Steve Borthwick and centre Olly Barclay amongst them, so the West Country giants won't be challenging at the business end of proceedings but on their day they are a handful with a game that is as fluid as any in England. Toulouse are the class act here, just as they are in any pool they adorn, and Guy Noves' side will almost certainly qualify barring any catastrophes. There may be room for two teams to sneak through this under-strength group, especially if the Dragons lose a couple of early matches. Glasgow kept us interested right up to the last game last year but they may need to win in Bath to go one better this time out.

Prediction

Winners: Toulouse
Runners-up: Bath

Pool 6

Biarritz
Cardiff Blues
Gloucester
Calvisano

This is another of the easier groups with Calvisano likely to offer a chance of away points and Biarritz a pale shadow of the team that contested the 2006 final. Before this weekend they sat a lowly ninth in the French Top 14. The Blues have invested heavily in Kiwi talent and have promised much in recent years without ever quite making their mark. Cardiff qualified last season but came a cropper in their Toulouse quarter-final. Gloucester are in exactly the same boat because they cannot negotiate the Heineken Cup hurdle without a pratfall. Their nemesis seems to be Munster and Chris Paterson's radar picked a bad time to go on the blink during last season's quarter-final.

Prediction

Winners: Cardiff
Runners-up: Gloucester