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Terry Murden: The new world order



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Published Date: 12 October 2008
AS WESTERN capitalism lies injured and bleeding, it may find itself picked up and carried away by a clutch of passing Chinese, Indians and even Vietnamese who must be watching the ongoing turmoil with a mixture of astonishment and anticipation.
So that's how they run economies in the developed world? Well, don't expect the emerging countries to show too much sympathy. They may be sharing some of the pain, but they're ready and waiting to move in now that some prize assets are available at r
ock bottom prices.

They have been stalking the West since the last slump of 2000 to 2003, setting out their claim to tilt the balance of the global economy in their favour – not only towards south-east Asia. At that time there were claims that the drift of jobs to India and China was being exaggerated, but as we now know it gathered speed and both have imported more and more jobs and, in many cases, entire company operations.

Among those who took jobs east were BT, National Rail Enquiries, Tesco and Abbey. Ultimately, though, this was driven by the western consumer's insatiable desire for more goods at the lowest possible price, a process that is at the root of the current malaise.

But this was not a one-way process as the emerging economies have been seen as a bridge to growth for western firms. Prudential, the insurance giant, and HSBC, the biggest British bank, have strong footholds in Asia and the region's relative immunity to the current turmoil has enabled these companies to weather the worst of the stock market storm.

Royal Bank of Scotland had similar ambitions, buying a 5% stake in Bank of China and access to tens of thousands of new customers. But while RBS now struggles for survival its Chinese counterparts go from strength to strength.

China and its Asian cousins, together with the oil money in the Middle East, Russia and the former satellite states of the USSR, are now showing their muscle on the economic stage. These countries have amassed great reserves of wealth through flotations, natural resources and by trading on a colossal scale. Their target for some time has been assets in the West.

Their initial moves on western firms fell by the wayside under a welter of protectionism that betrayed the West's hypocrisy. Dubai Ports World was forced to abandon its plan to buy P&O's American ports following a national security debate in the US Congress on Arab ownership. The Americans also blocked the Chinese National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) from buying energy firm Unocal.

It is not just the Americans that have got into a protectionist frenzy. Concerns were expressed in the UK over the potential for Russia's Gazprom, the state-owned energy company, acquiring British assets, mainly gas. These blockages were an affront to the newcomers who had embraced the "free" market only to find it was no quite so free as they had been led to believe. But they have not been deterred.

Tata of India acquired Corus, including the former British Steel, and latterly bought Jaguar and Land Rover. Vijay Mallya, the Indian tycoon, assumed control of Scotch whisky company Whyte & Mackay. Ping An, one of China's big insurers, raised £11bn earlier this year to buy companies and there were rumours that it had Prudential in its sights.

But it is the rise of state-backed foreign enterprises or sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) that is impacting most on debt-laden western economies, ready and able to unleash a wall of cash into every sector where they can buy a share in world trade at a stroke.

The problems for even the biggest of global companies are plain to see. With investors in short supply due to the credit crisis, balance sheets under pressure and stock markets taking a tumble, many western companies have been forced to look east for finance, and to these giant funds in particular.

According to a report from Asia-oriented bank Standard Chartered earlier this year, these SWFs hold $2.2 trillion (£1.3 trillion) and this could reach $13.4 trillion over the next 10 years. The biggest – dubbed the Super Seven – have $100bn in assets, notably the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, Government of Singapore Investment Corporation (GIC) and others in Kuwait, China and Russia. Norway, whose global pension fund holds 80% of the government's oil revenues, is the only one in the West.

Another range of government-backed assets, described as the Secret Funds because they are less transparent, include Brunei, China, Kuwait, Oman, Taiwan, Venezuela and the United Arab Emirates.

The process began last November when US investment bank Citigroup raised $7.5bn in new capital from the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority. A month later, Switzerland's UBS put the begging bowl out to the GIC and a Saudi Arabian investor. Morgan Stanley then raised $5bn from China Investment Corporation, while Singapore's Temasek invested $4.4bn in Merrill Lynch shares.

British firms have also been drawn to SWFs. During its unsuccessful tussle for control of Dutch bank ABN Amro, Barclays turned to China Development Bank and Singapore's Temasek for funds in return for stakes in the bank. Though it was beaten by Royal Bank of Scotland, Barclays did establish new links that may pay longer-term rewards.

Since then big money from the Middle East (Sulaiman Al-Fahim, at Manchester City) and Russia (Roman Abramovich, at Chelsea) has flow into football clubs, premier hotels and other trophy assets. But it will also seek out key businesses in energy, transport and communications.

There is concern surrounding the secrecy of the SWFs and some foreign buyers when western companies are expected to wash their dirty linen in public. The worry is that few of us will get close to their strategies or influence control over how they operate.

One of the new battlegrounds, therefore, is likely to be the trade-off between an impoverished West's need for capital and the wealthier East's willingness to be more transparent in their dealings. The outcome, however, will be a shift of power in the world economy.



The full article contains 1024 words and appears in Scotland On Sunday newspaper.
Page 1 of 1

  • Last Updated: 11 October 2008 8:06 PM
  • Source: Scotland On Sunday
  • Location: Scotland
  • Related Topics: Terry Murden
 
1

Willie Macleod,

Wick 12/10/2008 02:30:42
Capitalism does lie bleeding its failure and excess seeps from the wounds.

It is between life and death how many transfusions does it need.
2

expat scot,

montreal 12/10/2008 06:24:14
..."and HSBC, the biggest British bank,"

...HSBC - hong kong and shanghai banking corporation, HQs in central on HK island i think Mr Murden might find
3

Itchy,

12/10/2008 11:23:52
#1 Interventionism lies bleeding. Kindly get some economic theory.

What is required is lower taxes, a balanced budget, deregulation and a gold standard.

We have none of these things now despite what bozos in the media say.

 

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