What might John Swinney’s Cabinet look like, and where will Kate Forbes fit in?

The SNP veteran has already said he wants Kate Forbes to play a “significant part”. Ms Forbes, the former finance secretary, was considering her own leadership bid before pulling out on Thursday. She will be offered a “very involved, senior position”, Mr Swinney told journalists.

There is speculation she could become his deputy and finance secretary. This role is currently filled by Shona Robison under Humza Yousaf. However, she was notably absent from Mr Swinney’s campaign launch on Thursday morning, despite the presence of several other senior ministers, and some believe she is on the way out.

Supporters of Ms Forbes see her possible return to the finance brief, which she held between 2020 and 2023, as a smart move that will help heal the party’s divisions. One praised Mr Swinney’s pitch to activists. "Kate could have written that speech,” they said.

Another SNP politician noted: “I think, given everything that’s been said, and given who she is, I think it would look strange if there was not some sort of economic brief.”

One party source took it a step further. They pointed to the famous pact between Tony Blair and Gordon Brown in 1994, in which Mr Brown agreed not to run for the Labour leadership in return for control over economic and social policy as chancellor.

"What it needs to be is a Blair-Brown deal,” they said. “It can’t be that Swinney’s in charge and he tells her what to do. But he’s not a delegator. He keeps a tight rein. There’s no way he will do that. I know him. While I want to give him a chance, I’m not really holding my breath."

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They said Ms Forbes would be a “big, big improvement” on Ms Robison.

Mr Swinney stressed the need for party unity during his campaign launch, and said he would build a “cohesive, inclusive team”. There has been speculation he will seek to appoint some of Ms Forbes’ supporters, such as the MSPs Michelle Thomson and Ivan McKee, to ministerial positions.

Mr McKee was previously a minister for business and trade under Nicola Sturgeon. However, his recent swipe at Mr Swinney in the pages of a tabloid newspaper may hinder any chance of a government comeback. “Rushing to endorse a ‘continuity’ candidate at this early stage is eerily reminiscent of what happened in last year’s contest – and we all know now how well that turned out,” he wrote in the Daily Record on Wednesday.

Aside from Ms Forbes’ return, some SNP insiders are not expecting major changes to the existing Cabinet. After all, a few senior ministers have simply not had time to make their mark.

Neil Gray, for example, was only appointed health secretary in February. Màiri McAllan, who introduced Mr Swinney at his leadership campaign launch, was handed the new wellbeing economy, net zero and energy portfolio as part of the same reshuffle. She is expected to retain a big role.

Jenny Gilruth, the education secretary, is on the brink of outlining her vision for the sector. Mr Swinney, who previously held the education brief, will surely recognise the benefit of stability in this area, rather than more uncertainty.

Ms Gilruth backed Mr Swinney’s leadership bid, as did most of her fellow Cabinet ministers, including culture secretary Angus Robertson, social justice secretary Shirley-Anne Somerville, transport secretary Fiona Hyslop and rural affairs secretary Mairi Gougeon.

"I would be surprised if there were massive, sweeping changes,” said one party figure. However, they speculated about changes among the junior ministers.

One SNP politician said they suspected Mr Swinney would reduce the overall number of ministers, to make the Government “smaller and more focused”. There are currently 26 ministers, including the 10-strong Cabinet. This amounts to around 40 per cent of SNP MSPs.

The end of the power-sharing deal between the SNP and the Greens saw the ministerial responsibilities previously held by Patrick Harvie and Lorna Slater, the Green co-leaders, absorbed into other briefs.

Of course, reshuffles often contain surprises. As one MSP put it: “I have been guessing reshuffles for a number of years now and always get them wrong. It’s like picking lottery numbers.”

One thing is fairly certain: Mr Swinney’s top team will not include his predecessor. Mr Yousaf has made it clear he wants a break.

"First and foremost, I’m looking forward to a stint on the backbenches, because I’ve been a government minister for almost 12 years,” he told journalists in the wake of his resignation. “I don’t really remember what life was like before being a government minister, and the workload, and the intensity of the pressure that comes with that. So I’ll look forward to making a contribution from the backbenches.”

After the year he’s had, who can blame him?