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Teresa Hunter: No laughing matter as families fear for their future



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Published Date: 02 November 2008
WHERE would we be without gallows humour? It's 79 years ago this weekend that the crisis on Wall Street entered its final and most destructive phase. Yet to raise a smile in those terrible times, clerks in New York hotels, legend has it, used to ask guests whether they wanted the room to sleep in or to jump from.
Another contemporary joke involved two men who jumped hand-in-hand from a high window at the Ritz, on account of their having jointly owned investments.

No wonder today's families, worried sick about losing their jobs, have lost patience with Blan
d and Dross.

By early November 1929 prices had been sliding for two months. It was no longer the case of finding a buyer if the price was right. Many investments had become unsaleable.

Those not yet broke tried hopelessly to save themselves by buying more stock. As John Kenneth Galbraith wrote in his classic The Great Crash 1929: "Men have been swindled by other men on many occasions. The autumn of 1929 was perhaps the first occasion when men succeeded on a large scale in swindling themselves."

Last week it was as if the Great British Public woke up to the swindle perpetrated upon it and started to say enough is enough. Its anger is unlikely to stop at Jonathan Ross and Russell Brand.

We willingly and eagerly handed interest rate setting policy to the Bank of England, only to watch it consistently get rates wrong. What I would like to know is: where is their apology? Which members of the Monetary Policy Committee are going to resign, and which should be suspended without pay?

Of course, we hope that the Bank cuts rates again when it meets this week. But the truth is, it is all too late. It can slash rates as hard as it likes, but sentiment has changed.

The Government must also come clean about its borrowing plans and produce a full analysis of the impact on future taxes, interest rates and inflation, and set aside time for debate. That way we can hope to prevent Labour using our money fruitlessly to shore up its position.

As Galbraith said of the speculators who kept investing more into dud stock: "If one has been a financial genius, faith in one's genius does not dissolve at once. To the battered but unbowed genius, support of one's own stock still seemed a bold, imaginative and effective course."

Actions speak louder than words. For all the applause of Brown's miracle cure for our economy, the world has been selling sterling for all its worth. What do they know that we have yet to be told?

Myths and reality

WHEN we draw parallels with the Wall Street Crash, we should never lose sight of the extent to which popular American culture turned what was undoubtedly a bad financial earache into an epic.

Some of the most famous myths about the era are just that – pure fiction. Take the suicides. Fact: the suicide rate for New York and the US as a whole had been rising throughout the boom years of the late 1920s, and showed no sudden surge at the end of 1929. There was no mass evacuation out of hotel windows.

Similarly, the myth that somehow the whole of America was ruined on the market. Fact: out of a population of 120 million, only 1.5 million owned stocks, and of those fewer than 600,000 were margin trading.

So here's a fact for our times. The headline rate of house price falls is meaningless, because only the desperate are selling. The prices they accept bear no resemblance to what a willing seller would accept. Your house has not fallen in worth by anything like what you are being told.

So do yourself a favour. Rein in your imagination and leave the blockbusters to Hollywood.

Criticism is too late

IT IS seven years since the Equitable went down, and regulators and the Government turned a blind eye to their own culpability. Shame on them. If any attempt had been made to learn from that disaster, the catastrophe before us now might have been avoided.

Parliamentary Ombudsman Ann Abraham told MPs last week that regulators were too "mesmerised" by the glamour of the UK's most reputable insurer to bring the out-of-control management to heel. Sound familiar?

Even though all the information was before them, just like the 25-year-old producer too scared to say no to two big stars, they stood watching this pleasure steamer sailing towards the Niagara Falls. They somehow thought all would be well.

The Government fought for years to cover up the cause of the Equitable calamity and prevent any public criticism of its role. Sadly, now the truth is out, Abraham's words have come far too late.

My mother learned the hard way

PENSIONS are a hot topic in the Love household, but mum-of-two Sharon learnt about them the hard way, writes Teresa Hunter.

Her mother retired, only to find she would receive a tiny state pension because she paid the married woman's stamp for most of her working life rather than full NI contributions.

Sharon, 33, of Dunfermline, said: "The whole family has been looking at pensions because we were shocked at the pittance of the state pension she is paid. She's had to go back out to work to top it up."

Although 33-year-old Sharon, an accountancy graduate, went back to work after Sophie, three, was born; when Joshua, now one, came along, the cost of childminding became prohibitive.

She says: "I decided to stay at home because otherwise I would have been working for nothing once I had paid out for childcare. But with private pensions the way they are I realised I would be relying on my state pension in old age."

She feels previous generations have been let down, arguing:

"My mother is very astute, but she had no idea she was depriving herself of her pension."

Sharon is now determined not to make the same mistake. "I shall do a pensions forecast and read all the information I can find."







The full article contains 1038 words and appears in Scotland On Sunday newspaper.
Page 1 of 1

  • Last Updated: 01 November 2008 11:19 PM
  • Source: Scotland On Sunday
  • Location: Scotland
  • Related Topics: SOS Business Columnists
 
1

Evan Owen,

Uppergumtree 02/11/2008 10:53:36
It isn't just about share values of house prices. Comparing now with 1929 is misleading, things have changed, more people have mortgages, more have savings exposed to equities.
2

Active Sassenach,

02/11/2008 16:17:19
"We willingly ... handed interest rate setting ... to the Bank of England, only to watch it consistently get rates wrong. ... where is their apology? Which members of the Monetary Policy Committee are going to resign, ... be suspended without pay?"

Financial journalists like Teresa Hunter, when interest rates were disastrously low, knew they were fuelling an asset price bubble and just wrote articles about where to get the cheapest and most voluminous mortgages to play it for all it was worth.

No further cuts in nominal bank base rates should even be contemplated until offerors have learned the value of their assets - or buyers have taught them. Try getting a job at £20,000 per annum. On that, you could get a creditworthy mortgage of £70,000. At 80% LTV, you could buy for £87,500 on that mortgage, provided you have £17,500 plus the costs in cash. If you want a one-bed flat, you might be coming to near striking range, but I fear that prices need to fall further before you have reasonable certainty that this would be the average price of the average one-bed on a sustainable basis. Until it is, there is no way to prioritise new lending for business investment.

Further, we now have absolute jet-propelled disconnect between the actual cost of borrowing and the nominal base rate which the Government's bank support money has so far not been able to fix. The only guarantee you have is that, if you cut effective interest rates with inflation high, you will wipe out the savings of the people whose money you need to borrow.
3

ccc,

02/11/2008 20:25:53
Teresa Hunter. You have no clue. You are an idiot. I know 1,000,000,000,000 times more than you do about economics.

Your predictions and theories have been PROVEN to be PATHETIC.

Give it up loser.


"The prices they accept bear no resemblance to what a willing seller would accept."

So you have a brain Theresa? Seriously.

I feel sorry for your skull to be kept so empty.

Good luck with your negative equity. I will happily buy your overpriced hell hole property for CASH, yes CASH, in 2011.

Just let me know when your pathetic little head has finally accepted THE TRUTH.

:)
4

A Homeowner,

Crieff 02/11/2008 22:31:26
"the myth that somehow the whole of America was ruined on the market. Fact: out of a population of 120 million, only 1.5 million owned stocks, and of those fewer than 600,000 were margin trading"

And of that 120 million, only 13 million became unemployed. So that's alright then.

It may have escaped your attention, but most of our pensions are tied in to the performance of the markets. Not quite Hollywood blockbuster material, but a pain in the backside all the same when Grandad retires in three years time. Maybe this doesn't affect you - is your house your pension? You did buy a house recently didn't you?

5

A Friend of Fernando Poo,

03/11/2008 17:44:28
Thank you Teresa Hunter. There have been too few journalists investigating whether Brown and Darling are simply throwing away vast wads of our cash while prolonging the recession. When we have the example of Japan, we should question whether we want a shallow interminable recession or just take our medicine and have a short and deep one.
6

A Friend of Fernando Poo,

03/11/2008 17:46:39
"So here's a fact for our times. The headline rate of house price falls is meaningless, because only the desperate are selling. The prices they accept bear no resemblance to what a willing seller would accept. Your house has not fallen in worth by anything like what you are being told."

This is economic illiteracy. The price in every market is set by the marginal seller.


 

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