I BECAME an Independent Financial Adviser in March 1973. Seven months later the world started to come to an end. That was the infamous stock market crash of October 1973. Over the next 15 months world stock markets collapsed. In the UK the FT 30 index fell 70%.
By the beginning of 1975, every expert appearing on television and radio or in the press agreed we were all finished. The UK had to go cap in hand to the IMF (International Monetary Fund). But the consensus was that it was too little too late. This
was the era of the three-day week, no telly after 9pm and petrol about to be rationed. But what happened next?
In January the FT index jumped 25%. Within the year it was up over 100%. It wasn't obvious at the time, but January 1975 represented one of the best buying opportunities in history. But pessimists had us looking in the wrong direction.
Today we find ourselves in a similar situation. It's true to say most investors have taken a hammering over the past 12 months, especially in these past 100 days. All the experts wheeled out on television and radio and quoted nightly take pleasure in telling us things not only are bad right now, but they're going to get a lot worse. Apparently it'll be as bad as the Great Depression in the 1930s.
Nowadays you can't get away from these people. Thanks to the telecommunications and internet revolution we have 24-hour wall-to-wall predictions of doom and gloom. We are swamped with bad news. Good news is ignored.
Perhaps one of the most annoying developments is the continuous band of "Breaking News" running along the bottom of our television screens during news broadcasts, which spews out doom and gloom by the second. I reckon it should be renamed "Breaking Spirits", because that's what it does to investors.
Over the past 35 years there have been bad and good extremes in world stock markets. And it is at these times of extremes that perspective is important. Perspective offers common sense.
When I look back over the years I realise my mother spoke common sense, although I didn't appreciate it at the time. She constantly reminded me there were always two sides to every story. Today we seem only to be exposed to one side.
JK Galbraith, economic adviser to US President Kennedy in the 1960s, expressed it even better. He reminded us that in economics the majority is always wrong. He also advised investors: "You will always find the majority of experts quoted in the media are those whose views mirror the media in question."
Mike Williams, fund manager and financial commentator in the US, reminds us it's only 100 days since experts predicted we were heading for rampant inflation, oil over $200 a barrel and gold over $2,000 an ounce, with commodity and food prices heading to the stratosphere.
And yet three months later the same experts tell us deflation is the problem, on the back of the prices of oil, gold, commodities and agriculture products plummeting. And they say this is also bad news!
But what does common sense tell us? Well, it tells us prices will fall, which in turn will bring down production and distribution costs. Isn't that good news?
So at a time like this we should check what successful long-term investors are up to. Warren Buffett, the richest person in the world at the moment, in the past three weeks invested $34bn in equities.
Another outstanding fund manager today is Graham French at M&G. In a teleconference last week he apologised for not seeing the severity of all this coming, but reminded us he is taking the opportunity of buying good-quality companies at rock-bottom prices. He, like others, believes this is the buying opportunity of a lifetime.
His particular expertise lies in China and the Middle East. He reminds us in all of this gloom the Chinese economy still managed to grow 8% in the past 12 months and Chinese consumers increased retail spending year on year by 23%.
So if you're still holding on to your equities, don't be among the despondent sellers. I'd rather be with Warren Buffett and Graham French, who believe we can get through this profitably with patience.
Alan Steel is chairman of Alan Steel Asset Management
The full article contains 746 words and appears in Scotland On Sunday newspaper.