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Pat Nevin: Football must end its debt culture before high-profile casualties are lost



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Published Date: 12 October 2008
A FEW MONTHS ago I suggested on these pages that we could be on the brink of the worst recession in living memory. The next week in the sports letters page it was suggested that I should shut up about economics as I knew nothing about it and should stick to football. I look forward to the apology next Sunday.
Well once again I am the harbinger of doom because I really do feel that the very future of some of Britain's major football clubs is unsafe in the now extreme economic climate. Worse still, I think there is a head-in-the-sand attitude prevailing in
certain areas in the game when it comes to the credit crunch and its ongoing effects.

This week one former player writing in a quality newspaper said that "there are absolutely no problems and there is nothing for clubs or fans to worry about." Try telling that to West Ham fans when they woke up to find out that Iceland's banks were teetering on the edge and, as such, Upton Park's current owners might want to pay the next week's wages in haddock fillets instead of cash.

The story over the last few years has been of wealthy foreign owners who have billions to spare, but there are only a very few of them. Others, like those at Manchester United and Liverpool, have had to borrow to gain control and this is not a good time to be heavily in debt. If the major banks, which in most respects are considered solid enough businesses, begin to creak with the strain because of liquidity problems, then wealthy businessmen could easily be at least as vulnerable to growing debt repayments.

The global markets have told us over the past month that nothing is impossible in the current climate, just ask employees at international giants such as Lehman Brothers and AIG. At the moment, the top four alone in England are up to their eyes to the tune of £2bn at least. They claim their debt is serviceable but they have not fully addressed the infamous Donald Rumsfeld 'unknown unknowns'.

What if a club's sugar daddy has difficulties in his core business – and plenty will in the coming months and maybe years? Will he sacrifice his own financial security for the club? My suspicion and my experience say not. The odds are not great that many of these high net-worth individuals will simply walk away, but what are the odds of them dying? Bookies are still not taking many bets on anyone living forever so clubs have to hope that their provider has made provision for when he has shuffled off this mortal coil. Once again I am not convinced this is regularly the case.

In that the leagues are now hammering the old administration scam, if a football club is left with something approaching three quarters of a billion pounds worth of debt and a mass of huge contracts to service alongside it, they can't use the system and they certainly can't trade their way out of it. They have to hope and pray that another kindly billionaire will turn up willing to take on the debt and agree to lose a whole shed-load more capital going forward into the bargain.

The thing that keeps most of the biggest clubs afloat in this sea of uncertainty is of course the television money, specifically the vast Sky deal. The clubs must be on tenterhooks and on their knees daily praying that the next deal is at least as lucrative as the last one because if that falters their huge budgets immediately begin to look dangerously nonsensical. But is this likely to happen?

Well, Setanta and others have made the battle for TV rights much more of a real market place. Even so, if we do go into a lengthy recession, then a full satellite football package is not exactly a necessary outlay for the average consumer compared with food and fuel, especially as highlights are almost invariably available on terrestrial TV eventually.

I am loath to say it but I do think there was some sense emitting from Sepp Blatter's camp recently regarding the issue of debt in the English game in particular. It might be perceived down south as nothing more than an anti-English rant and indeed there may be more than a grain of truth in that, but even the Champions League itself is becoming ever more predictable, and thus dull, because the English and their debt-ridden clubs are buying success by sweeping up almost all the best players throughout the continent. It is affecting competition and that is the driver of people's interest and the reason why they continue to watch it and pay for it.

Just before the current banking crisis there were huge sums still being made daily on the stock market and I had economists arguing with me that everything was still rosy. The problem is that it was all built on confidence, particularly in banks, and football is increasingly relying on confidence, not only on the field but off it as well.

For some time FIFA and UEFA have been planning the implementation of the licence scheme to safeguard the clubs from dangers, not least from themselves. The idea floated by UEFA general secretary David Taylor that Manchester United, Chelsea and Liverpool could be thrown out of the Champions League because their debt levels contravene the new rules is probably far-fetched – they would have to eject the likes of Real Madrid as well considering their financial record – but the governing bodies are flagging up a situation that cannot go on forever. They know it will almost certainly have some high-profile casualties sooner or later.

I have long been arguing that the real solution is to limit players' wages, generally the biggest single outlay for clubs, to around 60% of turnover with one major caveat. If the club entices a wealthy investor there should be no problem with using his money for players, but only if he gives the money secured in an account and does not merely loan it.

Some have called me naive when I have suggested this in the past, because it is not cost-effective for those giving and it is generally not the way money is used by these people in their global financial dealings. Well guess what, tough luck if it is not the most tax-efficient method, if you want to bask in the glory of the fame of the beautiful game, it is going to cost you.

What's more, some of those people who have used complex loan deals have managed to bring the world economy close to its knees. Maybe we shouldn't be listening to them as much these days anyway. After all there are only two types of people in the current markets, the don't knows and those who don't know that they don't know.



The full article contains 1175 words and appears in Scotland On Sunday newspaper.
Page 1 of 1

 
1

Ayegudyin,

12/10/2008 10:49:36
don't beat about the bush with all these wee clubs down in England, say what you mean Pat! the BIG team is going down.

As the beetles once sang: "we all live in a sinking russian submarine, a sinking russian submarine, a sinking russian submarine"

GGTTH
2

leith keely,

edinburgh 12/10/2008 10:55:44
#1 ah but submarines have a an annoying habit of resurfacing again, that must really get to you like we always do,ya hiVERMIN guffbag!
3

Ayegudyin,

12/10/2008 11:11:04
#2 resurfacing only to be shot to pieces on your return to land 'a la' Das Boot. Great film, you should watch it sometime.
4

Talk o' the Toun,

12/10/2008 11:45:36
#1 The reason Pat does not mention the team YOU refer to as 'THE BIG TEAM'(understandably) is that HEARTS(the team you are in awe of) financial exposure is totally different from the senario he outlines.Appreciate this is difficult for you to understand but i am afraid you will have to come up with PLAN B .

No doubt the recession is already hitting clubs at all levels & will gather pace.Attendances/merchandice/corporate will plumit.......the cure is alot easier than the global economy ;reduce players vastly inflated salaries.
5

the real mixu62,

12/10/2008 12:36:24
The reason Pat does not refer to hearts is they are a plc and their parent company is also registered on a stock exchange. If he prints what everyone expects (hearts will be in administration very soon) he could be sued. If you bother to buy todays paper you will see he accompanies this article with a huge picture of the hearts team. There can be no doubt that the financial situation at tynecastle is dire.

Hearts are about to pay the price for living beyond their means. Poor leadership and interfering from above has ruined this once proud club!
6

CBJambo,

12/10/2008 13:13:49
Enjoyed that article Pat.

I know my club is at great risk at the moment... it does not give me any more confidence to read that pretty much every other club in Britain (bar hibs obviously) is at the mercy of the global economy.

At times like these football comes a pale second to putting food on the table, without doubt there will be casualties.
7

the real mixu62,

12/10/2008 13:30:36
CBjambo

I'm glad you had the good grace to acknowledge that a well run club like hibernian are not as exposed as hearts. I did notice that you felt the need to bring almost every club down with you.

You are correct. There will be casualties. Sadly for you and your fellow jambos, hearts will be the first and most high profile scottish club to go.
The English Premier League clubs at risk will be bailed out and buyers found, as they are still viable businesses the same cannot be said about the sad jambos!
8

Talk o' the Toun,

12/10/2008 13:53:34
#5 you cannot get the basic facts correct.HEARTS are not a PLC.No one bar the desperate green & white parasites say Hearts are heading to administration.If i thought there was a braincell there i would educate you as to why HEARTS are highly unlikely to enter administration.

Do you know what administartion is..... other than PLAN A for deluded Hibbys to remedy their inferiority complex.
9

the real mixu62,

12/10/2008 17:27:30
Oh dear oh dear. We have a believer. We will see. We will see early next week. I only hope you are big enough to come on and apologise.
To answer your question, yes I do know what administration is. Some yams believe that this will in fact be good for the yams, this is not the case. There will be a lack of buyers ready to rescue you.
Don't you worry tho TOTT. You put your head back in the sand and dismiss us hibees as hobonomics! It just gives us more to gloat about when the glorious day comes!
10

Teofilio Cubillas,

12/10/2008 18:00:07
You must be scunnered Pat. You go to all the bother of writing a thought-provoking article about the global financial storm and it's possible effect on European football (and the British game in particular), and the only readers comments the article attracts is the same parochial guff one finds when reading the Evening News.
11

Talk o' the Toun,

12/10/2008 20:51:13
#9 Take that is you retracting your statement that HEARTS are a PLC?(or more accurately ignoring the fact you know SFA!)...gloat/glorious day...says it all.
12

Bleeding Heart...,

12/10/2008 22:34:48
#11 - The silence remains deafening, ToTT!

#10 - There is a parochial element to this, TC, but it's tied into having an inferiority-complex.

Certain "Hobos" are just desperate for HMFC to disappear in order to lose that second-best feeling.

Thankfully, there are also sensible and balanced Hibs fans...
13

mcaitchi,

hibs 12/10/2008 23:34:44
12# iv never really seen this "big team or wee team"
thing that we all argue about !!

imo - we are quite even !! in most arguements ???

So - the second best feeling does not come into anything !! -

we are always second best to the weegies tho !!

I hope Hibs and hearts are still here for generations to come ...

14

MickyFinn,

Livingston 13/10/2008 11:26:29
Mmmmmmmmmmm I wonder what Sir David Wantaway thinks about this?

How many clubs in Scotland are in the black or could survive a recall on debts ?

The gras is always greener!
15

Bleeding Heart...,

13/10/2008 20:10:33
#13 "mcaitchi" - I tend to agree, but certain Hearts fans will gleefully (and correctly) point out that Hearts have won more trophies and more derby matches than Hibs.

The argument, as I understand it, therefore goes that, in relative terms, Hearts are "bigger" than Hibs (but not many others, alas!!!).

Some Hibs fans do however, seem overly-keen on seeing Hearts go under. My conclusion is that it's because of the aforementioned "big-ness".

You. sir, are an honourable exception: always balanced & fair. If (when?) your team emerges triumphant after Sunday next, you're the type of guy Hearts fans should gladly offer congratulations.

 

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