WITH JUST days left before the Americans go to the polling booths, it seems appropriate to exhume the phase that was widely credited with pushing Bill Clinton past the post: "It's the breakdown, stupid," as one Democrat strategist almost said.
Scotland's chances of recording a first win against New Zealand next Saturday will revolve around what happens at the breakdown, the most contentious area of rugby. And the man who will referee it next Saturday is arguably the most contentious refere
e around. Wayne Barnes has not bumped into the All Blacks since last year's World Cup quarter-final in Paris. To say that he is not the most popular man Down Under would be to do an injustice to several thousand voodoo dolls. Barnes was the referee who turned a Nelsonian blind eye as Freddie Michalak threw a forward pass in the build-up to a crucial French try and he will be forgiven only when Beelzebub hires his first pair of skates.
The fact that Barnes is English will also have a bearing because the Guinness Premiership has been noticeably stricter in applying the new IRB stipulations at the breakdown than the Celtic whistle-blowers. The side with the ball are no longer allowed to "seal off" the breakdown by throwing bodies on it.
Alan Tait once stated: "Defence starts at the breakdown." If the defending team can slow the attackers' ball just long enough to realign their defensive line, then the danger is usually averted. Holes open up when the attacking team get quick ball on the front foot. If the Kiwis get quick ball they have the backs to damage anyone in world rugby, never mind a team that leaked 12 tries in the last Six Nations.
Whoever Frank Hadden picks in the forwards, the Scottish pack will have an athletic and workmanlike look about them. The coach confirmed that Simon Taylor was running at eight all week, in which case that is where the Parisian exile will start. The selectors' biggest debate will centre on who partners Nathan Hines in the second row, with both candidates, Matt Mustchin and Jason White, equally at home in the number six jersey.
The Scots should have parity or something close to it in the set piece. The lineout has been shaky over the past few years and this is one area where the new coach Mike Brewer needs to earn his corn. The set scrum had the Argentines on the back foot more than once and the growing experience of Euan Murray and Ross Ford is a useful counterweight to that unsung All Black hero Tony Woodcock, presuming, of course, that he plays.
And that is the other crucial unknowable unknown, to borrow from Donald Rumsfeld: just who Graham Henry will select next Saturday. Coming off a bruising encounter with the Wallabies in Hong Kong yesterday and with a Grand Slam tour of all four home nations ahead of them, the All Black coach may find it too tempting not to pick a weakened team to play against what he will see as a the weakest team in the British Isles.
Scotland's last draw came back in 1983 when New Zealand fielded six new caps and, while that number isn't likely on Saturday, Henry may well throw a few debutants into Murrayfield to sink or swim as best they can.
Hadden's real headaches come when he looks at the Scottish backs because he needs his young stars to step up to the plate and perform without the benefit of a warm-up match. Can Nick De Luca replicate his club form at international level? Can Ben Cairns shrug off his two months on the sidelines with a knee injury? Can Chris Paterson show more than his goal kicking prowess? And, of course, which flyhalf to choose?
The latter is the most important choice the coach has to make after happily confirming last week what he has repeatedly stated: "Personnel determine the style of play", and none more so than the playmaker. Opting for Phil Godman would be a vote of confidence in what is likely to be a young and inexperienced midfield and, for the first time in years, there are now lively rounds to fire in the back three.
Hadden will probably opt for caution and Dan Parks, reasoning that the new competition at the breakdown means that sides don't dare run the ball out of defence for fear of a turnover, and so the kicking game becomes all-important. Whatever his other faults, Parks usually puts the ball where it needs to go.
Any success for the Scots and there remains the teasing prospect of jumping Ireland in the IRB rankings. The two teams have similar opposition, except that Declan Kidney's men play Argentina while Scotland must face the world champions, South Africa, so the possibility of ending November in eighth place remains remote.
The only other elephant in the living room is the small matter of the British and Irish Lions tour to South Africa. The trials for selection start on Saturday and, whatever they may claim in public, every Scot who is in with a shout knows it.
SCOTLAND'S AUTUMN TESTSNOV 8: NEW ZEALAND Murrayfield
Perversely, this could be Scotland's best chance of getting the ranking points they need to usurp Ireland for the vital top-eight spot seeding spot for the World Cup draw. The All Blacks are likely to rest some big guns as they embark on a gruelling European tour but it's still a huge ask for Frank Hadden's side.
NOV 15: SOUTH AFRICA Murrayfield
The world champions play with an intensity and pace that is likely to be too much for Scotland. Don't expect a repeat of the heroics of 2002 when the Scots beat the Boks for the first time in 33 years.
NOV 22: CANADA Pittodrie
This one doesn't count for ranking points but should provide Hadden with a much-needed win. Ireland play Argentina the same day and will fancy their chances.
The full article contains 1024 words and appears in Scotland On Sunday newspaper.
