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Gerald Warner: Economic madness should herald Tories' finest hour



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Published Date: 30 November 2008
The Conservatives must recognise that Monday was the economy's 9/11
THERE have been moments of higher drama – the Chancellor's personality and delivery do not generate excitement – but there has been no peacetime announcement in the House of Commons more significant for the lives of the British public than last Mond
ay's Pre-Budget Report.

When Alistair Darling rose to speak, the national debt stood at £612bn; by the time he sat down it was spiralling inexorably towards more than £1 trillion. The closest parallel to the relationship between Gordon Brown and Darling was that between Rod Hull and Emu. As his ventriloquist's dummy announced the measures that sentenced the British economy to death, Gordon smiled complacently. That was when the realisation struck: we are in the clutches of a madman.

The hubris induced by spending other people's money has divorced Brown from reality. Britain's financial crisis began at that same despatch box in 2002, when he micturated £60bn of taxpayers' money against the wall. Now, for the sole purpose of winning the next general election (an ambition doomed to failure), he has tried to buy a two-year deferment of pain for the electorate at a price so high it may break our economy for a generation. George Osborne rightly claimed "this Budget is all about the political cycle, not the economic cycle". This rag-bag of placebo politics lacked all coherence. Reducing VAT from 17.5% for the next 13 months is unlikely to have much effect, with shops already implementing price reductions of up to 95%. The worst-case scenario is that, against expectations, it does work – and fuels deflation. The planned 1% increase in corporation tax for small businesses has been postponed; a new 45% income tax rate for "fat cats" earning £150,000 a year is promised; then there is the pièce de résistance: an increase in national insurance that will exact an extra £4bn in de facto income tax from middle Britain.

For those who relish the big issues, the Chancellor found time to sermonise about loft insulation. That put the final touch to the atmosphere of surrealism in which this dismemberment of the economy was conducted. So did the announcement of a fire sale of public assets for privatisation by an appropriately named official called Mr Grimstone: the Royal Mint, the Tote, the Meteorological Office, Urenco the uranium enrichment company ("Sold to the Iranian gentleman in the back row!").

If Brown had tried to sell off one of those pieces of the family silver a few years ago, Dennis Skinner would have had to be dragged out of the Commons chamber by half a dozen heavies. Now, in a buyers' market, they will go for a song, to the taxpayers' cost – just like our gold reserves, another market coup by Gordon. Brown has cynically calculated, in the spirit of a retreating Wehrmacht general setting demolition charges, that if the Tories win the next election he will have left a scorched-earth economy behind him. Try tax-cutting and freeing up individual enterprise in that lunar landscape, Cameron, is his message.

The Conservatives need to respond radically. They have to recognise that last Monday was the British economy's 9/11 and everything is changed. Forget all the teacakes-and-doillies minutiae that have so far passed for a Tory fiscal policy: the two-year council tax freeze; the six-month VAT holiday for small and medium businesses; the 1% cut (at least going in the right direction) on national insurance, for six months, for firms with fewer than five employees. Gordon tore up the Geneva Convention last week. This is war. So let us have a strategy for serious tax-cutting in the two places it really counts: personal income tax and corporation tax. The country needs a pledge that, on day one of a Conservative Government, Gordon's Schlieffen Plan will be reversed.

When Labour came to power Britain's savings ratio stood at 9.6%; this year it is negative. Britain has £1.4 trillion of private debt. Put some fiscal incentives back into thrift, Dave. Forget Darling's £5bn savings from cutting public waste: the available saving is £20bn and in a crisis like this it can be increased to £30bn, even if it means losing some of the most gifted makers of paper-clip chains in public service.

Fiscal reinvention is urgently needed and Labour is out of the game. It is a tabula rasa on which Tory ingenuity should be able to write a new narrative for Britain, as it did when preparing for government in the late 1970s. It is time to forget all the politically correct nonsense, the "nasty party" neuroses, the sub-Blair posturing. Time to take down the daft whirligigs from the garage roofs, to confront the electorate with the unvarnished truth and to become once again the natural party of government and of economic competence.





The full article contains 828 words and appears in Scotland On Sunday newspaper.
Page 1 of 1

 
1

Bolivarian Scot,

BorisTown 30/11/2008 09:51:45
All well and good but what Gerald Warner can never admit is that, social engineering aside, New Labour continued to implement Thatcherite pro-market, pro-big business economic policies. Indeed, New Labour actually went further than Mrs T in certain respects.

For example, he mentions Brown's "fire sale of public assets" (as if there was much left in the family silver cupboard after the Thatcher / Major years). There is no doubt that a New Labour government would have flogged those remaining assets in due course; all that's changed is the timing. As for the state bailout of banks, the government's long-term intention is to reinstate private ownership as soon as possible, in accordance with their rightwing ideology.

The idea that the UK economy was in tip-top shape after 18 years of Thatcherism is far-fetched. We had the same long-term trade deficit; the same reliance on an insanely narrow economic base (financial services and, er, not much manufacturing); a hidden unemployment problem and public services that were in an even worse state than today's (partly due to privatisation and deregulation). The nation was already hooked on debt and hopelessly materialistic; community life was a thing of the past in most of the UK; and Parliament was increasingly irrelevant in an age where footloose international money talked loudest and the rootless rich wrote their own rules.

You know..... just like nowadays!

And yet still there's talk of a state funeral for Thatcher, who (unlike Churchill and Wellington) divided and ruined the country like no other leader before or since!
2

Cynicus in Exile,

30/11/2008 12:55:02
And that was a party political broadcast on behalf of The Conservative Party.
3

Unimpressed one,

30/11/2008 13:39:33
Who's going to save now that interest rates are heading towards zero?
4

Mr. Lachie Todd,

Edinburgh 30/11/2008 14:04:47
The Tories: natural party of government?

Not in Scotland, where the Scots Electorate would rather prefer a Nationalist administration at Holyrood than ever vote for an alternative Tory one. The Scots Tories, implacable opponents of Devolution, only have MSP's at Holyrood thanks to the generous PR voting system there. Ten years after the Scots Tory wipeout, when their party was led to the edge of extinction, the mass of Scots voters still treat them like low caste political Dalits! A recent opinion poll showed the Scots Tories now have less support than in 1992 when Ian Lang was Secretary of State!

Not in Wales, where Labour out of desperation to retain some form of power had no option but to form a coalition with Plaid Cymru, and certainly not in Northern Ireland, despite all the overtures by David Cameron for a pact between the DUP and his party,
where the only form of government acceptable to both main political groups is power-sharing.

Not in the North of England where you will find very few Tory MP's.

The Tories are a Southern English political party and always have been!
5

Itchy,

30/11/2008 14:23:11
#1 "New Labour continued to implement Thatcherite pro-market, pro-big business economic policies"

New Labour has bled us dry with taxes and suffocated us with regulation since they gained office.

Your post ignores reality and is full of Marxist fallacies. You are precisely what is wrong with Scotland.
6

Bolivarian Scot,

BorisTown 30/11/2008 17:11:20
# 5 Itchy said:

"#1 "New Labour continued to implement Thatcherite pro-market, pro-big business economic policies"

New Labour has bled us dry with taxes and suffocated us with regulation since they gained office.

Your post ignores reality and is full of Marxist fallacies. You are precisely what is wrong with Scotland."

Care to elaborate?

There is nothing more fallacious than imagining that the UK economy got into its current state based on the last 10 years' mismanagement alone.
7

Itchy,

30/11/2008 19:38:47
#6 Elaborate?

Labour has continually raised taxes since they got in and increased regulation.

You seem to think that pro-business is pro-market.

BTW Labour have also presided over a credit expansion which is ALWAYS the cause of boom and bust.
8

Concerned local,

Edinburgh 30/11/2008 20:10:18
The Unionist parties screeched and squawked about the danger of an independent Scotland having a £4 BN debt. We now have a share of a £1 trillion debt as part of the UK, about £89 BN. What's the Unionist view? Come on........
9

Bolivarian Scot,

BorisTown 30/11/2008 20:43:08
# 6 Itchy said: "You seem to think that pro-business is pro-market."

You seem to think that New Labour is socialist, just because they have hiked taxes for the middle classes. Didn't they also cap it for the super-rich? Has the overall tax take as a % of GDP changed much since 1997? Not really.

Your point about New Labour presiding over a credit expansion is valid, though. One of the reasons for the relaxation of monetary policy (cheaper interest rates) was to boost the economy post-9/11. Political interference, of course but it was a multinational ploy, not just New Labour's. And correct me if I'm wrong but the Tories didn't exactly oppose it, did they?

As for pro-business being pro-market, I freely concede that. New Labour will happily work with big business even if, by doing so, it conflicts with open competition and genuinely free markets.

My point is: so will the Tories!
10

Itchy,

30/11/2008 22:01:18
#9 Labour is a Socialist party.

They love to tax and spend and regulate.
11

Bolivarian Scot,

BorisTown 01/12/2008 08:03:52
#9 Itchy said: "#9 Labour is a Socialist party.

They love to tax and spend and regulate."

Forgive me, but don't most governments, left and right, "tax and spend and regulate"?

Didn't General Pinochet?

Isn't it right that governments should provide some (many) public goods / services?

You obviously have in mind specific thresholds (eg tax take as a % of GDP, marginal income tax) beyond which a government "goes over to the dark side" and becomes "socialist".

So, let's have some specifics.
12

Itchy,

03/12/2008 23:49:38
#1 Pinochet was a military dictator.

Your posts are waffle.
I judge people on principles and on reality which you do not.

Labour is free market indeed.

And "Isn't it right that governments should provide some (many) public goods / services?" translates into " A free lunch is possible."

 

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